The new revision of the English traffic light is scheduled for today, Thursday. No changes are expected regarding the situation in amber for Spain and other destinations like France and Greece, although some Mediterranean destinations, like Turkeyare confident of leaving the Red List for the first time all summer.
As we published in Spain’s drop in cases lowers fear of it being redlisted, in its latest update the UK government has confirmed Spain on the orange list while asking travelers to exercise particular “caution”, given the “prevalence of the virus and its variants” in the country.
However, the noticeable drop in infections in recent weeks eased fears Spain could be redlisted: this Monday there was a cumulative incident 14 days later 319.58 new cases per 100,000 population, while on August 4, the date of the last traffic light review, the incidence was 633.07 new cases.
In the UK, the 14-day cumulative incidence (AI) per 100,000 population is now within the 634.75 new cases, a rate that remains extremely high. In France, the AI is currently 487.7 new cases and in Greece 421.19, according to the Datosmacro of Expansión.
Falling infection rate and increased vaccination, despite August break, almost completely eliminates possibility of Spain turning red
Right now, in fact, vaccination shows in Spain better numbers than UKas the charts from Our World in Data show:
This is the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose in Spain and the United Kingdom, with 76.3% for the first and 70.3% for the second.
As for the full directive, Spain vaccinated 67.3% of its population and the UK 61.6%.
Contagion rate among tourists
Current restrictions state that all citizens arriving in the UK must undergo a COVID test. According to data from the NHS Test and Trace -the English national health service’s testing programme-, Among travelers from Amber countries, only 1.2% tested positive upon returning home.
Among Britons’ favorite destinations in amber, those from Spain have seen the highest level of infections, at 2.9 per cent. This figure raised fears last week among tourists that Spain could go on the red list, a danger which already seems to have been averted.
Meanwhile, the rate of positive tests was 1.5% for Greek and Portuguese tourists, while for those who came from Germany and France, it was less than 1%.
Turkey hopes to come out of the red
For its part, in tomorrow’s review, Turkey hopes to get out of the red list for the first time, where it appeared in May. Vaccination is progressing in this Mediterranean destination. According to Our World in Data, 42% of the Turkish population received the full diet, while 56% received at least one dose.
The cumulative incidence in Turkey is 382.46 new cases at 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants, a relevant rate although similar to that of Spain and much lower than that of the British.
In fact, according to NHS Test and Trace data, 1.7% of people arriving in the UK from Turkey in the past three weeks, he has tested positive for COVID, a proportion that is within the average and which keeps alive the country’s hopes of moving to the orange list this week.
According to the analyst Paul-Charles, Turkey has many options to turn amber, in addition to improving data, also because India managed, earlier this month, to do the same. Charles considers it relevant that Turkey now provides extensive information on infections and their variants to the global initiative GISAID, a public-private partnership that shares scientific information on the virus in order to control it.