After a long meal between Mexican officials led by the President of the Republic, Andres Manuel Lopez Obradorand U.S. officials and businesspeople, led by the U.S. government’s special climate envoy, John Kerryit was proposed join a working group follow the issue of energy reform in our country.
Kerry may have returned to the United States with the idea that she had only been accepted for discover by the ‘morning’ of Friday that.
The version that the US government was not concerned about reform in this area was left out. It became clear that yes, and a lot.
The Council of Global Businesses, on which many American companies sit, commissioned a study of the likely impacts of the reform and found that there would be an increase in emissions of 30 to 50%as well as 20 to 30 percent higher costs.
The so-called ten points that were presented to the US government at Thursday’s meeting will convince no one.
In conjunction with the meeting held at the National Palace, the US Senate Finance Committee presented katherine taiU.S. Trade Representative, who was asked by several senators to undertake more forceful actions against an energy policy in Mexico, which considered a violation of TMEC.
Tai stressed that he coordinates with the various US authorities to enforce the instruments of the Treaty and ensure that there is no violation of the rules.
I don’t know if the Mexican government explained to those present at the meeting at the National Palace that all opposition political parties expressed their decision to vote against the amendmentin case – as indications so far indicate – a vote takes place in the week beginning April 11.
Obviously, the president is aware of these positions, since on Friday he called on the deputies of the PRI to rebel against the guidelines set by his party.
Perhaps the Americans should also have encountered various Ministers of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nationbecause in principle next Tuesday the plenary session will vote on an issue that could have almost as much impact on the electricity industry as the constitutional reform itself.
So far, AMLO has not called on ministers to support the minister’s proposal Loretta Ortizwho proposed declare constitutional reforms the electricity industry law which was approved last year and which has been popularly called the “combustóleo law”.
If AMLO did so and publicly pressured the Court, of course, the proposal would not pass.
But even without doing so, I believe that Minister Ortiz’s proposal has low chance of gathering all four votes necessary to ensure that such reforms are not reversed.
Due to voting history, I believe Ortiz only has the minister’s safe vote. Yasmine Esquivel.
And maybe the vote of Minister Zaldivar.
But, those who consider that, because they were proposed by AMLO, he can count on the votes of the Minister González Alcantara and the minister Farjat Riversis that they have not seen their voting history, which makes them judges with an independent criterion.
Among the others, frankly, I don’t see how there could be anyone who would support Minister Ortiz’s presentation.
It is therefore likely that in the next two weekselectrical reform which has caused so much worry and insomnia stay for the story.
Would this mean that no others could be promoted in the future?
No. Of course, the president could again promote constitutional reform energy if it finds the political conditions to do so.
What would those conditions be?
That there were lawmakers from an opposition party who could join Morena and his allies. And it would depend of the results of the June electoral processes of this year and possibly of 2023 or of a negotiating attitude of AMLO which did not appear today, to make changes to the initiative.
then maybe John Kerry could have avoided the trip or he could have postponed it until the end of April.
However, it was important for the Biden government to now let the Mexican government know that, although it is a sovereign government, as the President of the Republic insists, it is also part of a bond-generating business association. , as well as international agreements like the one in Paris on the environment, and that one thing is what the president says in the morning and another is the actual measurements carried out by qualified agencies.
But… there are no advanced watches because in Mexican politics, anything can happen.